The European Central Bank has published the March 2026 results of its Consumer Expectations Survey (CES).
Compared with February 2026:
- Median perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months increased to 3.5% from 3.0%.
- Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 4.0% from 2.5%, and expectations for inflation three years ahead increased to 3.0% from 2.5%.
- Inflation expectations for five years ahead increased slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%.
- Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months increased.
- Perceived inflation and expectations remained slightly higher among lower-income groups, with younger respondents reporting lower perceptions and expectations than older groups.
In terms of income and consumption:
- Nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained at 1.2%.
- Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months increased to 5.1% from 4.6%.
- Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 4.1% from 3.5%, the highest since May 2023.
Regarding economic growth and the labor market:
- Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became more negative, decreasing to -2.1% from -0.9%.
- The expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% from 10.8%.
- Lower-income households expect higher unemployment rates (13.7%) than higher-income households (9.7%).
Housing and credit access expectations include:
- Home price growth expectations increased slightly to 3.7% from 3.6%.
- Expectations for mortgage interest rates over the next 12 months rose to 4.9% from 4.7%.
- Lower-income households expect higher mortgage rates (5.5%) than higher-income households (4.3%).
- The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions over the past 12 months and expected over the next 12 months increased, reaching levels last seen in April 2024 and January 2024, respectively.
Microdata details are available on the ECB website. The next survey results will be released on 1 June 2026.
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