ECB wage tracker indicates modest wage growth in first half of 2027

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with data from collective bargaining agreements signed up to the end of August 2026. The forward-looking horizon has been extended to the end of June 2027.

Negotiated wage growth is projected at 2.7% for the first half of 2027, based on agreements signed so far. Employee coverage remains limited at 28.8% in the first half of 2027 but is expected to increase as more agreements are signed over time.

The ECB wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates a smoothed wage pressure of 2.2% in 2026, based on a coverage of 46.9%. The headline indicator stands at 2.7% in Q1 2027 (coverage 32.5%) and 2.8% in Q2 2027 (coverage 25.1%).

Compared to July 2026 data, the 2026 wage tracker was revised slightly downward, with the headline remaining broadly unchanged despite increased employee coverage. The unsmoothed wage tracker decreased from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, indicating limited influence of one-off payments in recent agreements.

The ECB emphasizes that the forward-looking component reflects current available data and should not be interpreted as a forecast. The coverage of employees in agreements reaching 2027 is expected to increase, extending the horizon further in upcoming releases.

Four indicators are published on the ECB Data Portal, including the headline wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments, the same excluding one-off payments, and the one with unsmoothed payments. The share of employees covered provides context on data representativeness.

For further details, including country-specific coverage and methodological notes, see the official ECB press release at ECB press release.