ECB consumer expectations survey results – August 2026

The European Central Bank has published the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) results for August 2026. The survey indicates that median perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months remained at 3.5%. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly to 3.0%, up from 2.9% in July. Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead also increased to 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.

Uncertainty regarding inflation expectations over the next 12 months decreased but remained higher than pre-Middle East conflict levels. Lower-income households reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than higher-income households. Younger respondents (18-34) reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older groups.

Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained at 1.0%, with higher expectations in the bottom income quintile (1.7%) compared to the top quintile (0.7%). Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months increased slightly to 5.2%, while expectations for future spending growth stayed at 3.6%.

Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months remained at -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months decreased to 11.0% from 11.2%. Households in the bottom income quintile expected the highest unemployment rate (13.4%), while the top income quintile expected the lowest (9.4%). The outlook suggests a broadly stable labor market.

Households expect home prices to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, with higher expectations in the lowest income group (4.0%) than in the highest (3.2%). Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, with the lowest rates expected by the top income quintile (4.4%) and the highest by the bottom quintile (5.7%). The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions declined compared to July.

The next release of the Consumer Expectations Survey results is scheduled for 23 October 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.