ECB consumer expectations survey results for January 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) has published the Consumer Expectations Survey results for January 2026. Key findings include a decrease in median perceived inflation over the past 12 months to 3.0% from 3.2%, and a decline in inflation expectations for the next 12 months to 2.6% from 2.8%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead remained unchanged at 2.6%, while expectations for five years ahead decreased slightly to 2.3% from 2.4%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained stable.

Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months increased to 1.2%, driven mainly by higher-income groups. Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months remained at 4.9%, with expected spending growth over the next year steady at 3.4%. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months stayed at -1.1%, and the expected unemployment rate remained at 11.0%. Lower-income households anticipated higher unemployment rates (13.5%) compared to higher-income households (9.5%).

Housing expectations indicate a 3.7% increase in home prices over the next 12 months, slightly higher than December. Expectations for mortgage interest rates remained at 4.7%, with lower-income households expecting higher rates (5.4%) than higher-income households (4.2%). The share of households reporting credit tightening increased, and the percentage applying for credit declined to 14.8% from 15.7% in October.

The ECB will release the February survey results on 27 March 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.