ECB consumer expectations survey results – December 2025

The European Central Bank (ECB) published the December 2025 consumer expectations survey results. Key findings include a slight increase in perceived inflation over the past 12 months to 3.2%, and increases in inflation expectations for three and five years ahead to 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively.

Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months decreased to 1.1%, while perceived spending growth over the past 12 months slightly decreased to 4.9%. Expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months remained stable at 3.4%, with divergence across income groups.

Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months improved to -1.1% from -1.3%, and expectations for the unemployment rate increased to 11.0% from 10.9%. Lower-income households expect a higher unemployment rate (13.2%) compared to higher-income households (9.5%).

Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.6% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4%. Expectations for mortgage interest rates rose slightly to 4.7%. Lower-income households anticipate higher mortgage rates (5.5%) than higher-income households (4.1%).

The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions declined, and expectations for tighter credit over the next 12 months remained unchanged since October. The full microdata are available on the ECB website. The next survey results will be released on 27 February 2026.

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