ECB consumer expectations survey results for February 2026

Compared to January 2026:

• Median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months remained at 3.0%.
• Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months and three years ahead decreased slightly to 2.5%, from 2.6% in January.
• Inflation expectations for five years ahead remained at 2.3%.
• Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months stayed at 1.2%.
• Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months decreased to 4.6%, from 4.9%.
• Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased slightly to 3.5%.
• Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months improved to -0.9%, from -1.1%.
• Expected unemployment rate in 12 months decreased to 10.8%, from 11.0%.
• Home price growth expectations declined slightly to 3.6%, from 3.7%.
• Expectations for mortgage interest rates remained unchanged at 4.7%.

The survey indicates that lower-income households continue to report slightly higher inflation perceptions and expectations than higher-income households, a trend since 2023. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older groups. Expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months remain slightly higher than the current perceived rate, indicating a stable labour market outlook.

The next CES release is scheduled for 28 April 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.