ECB consumer expectations survey results for January 2026

The European Central Bank has published the consumer expectations survey results for January 2026. Key findings include a decrease in perceived inflation over the past 12 months from 3.2% to 3.0%, and a decline in inflation expectations for the next 12 months from 2.8% to 2.6%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead remained unchanged at 2.6%, while expectations for five years ahead decreased slightly from 2.4% to 2.3%.

Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months increased to 1.2%, driven mainly by higher-income households. Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months remained at 4.9%, with expectations for the next 12 months at 3.4%.

Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remained at -1.1%, and expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months remained at 11.0%. Lower-income households expect higher unemployment rates (13.5%) compared to higher-income households (9.5%). Labour market sentiment improved, with unemployed respondents reporting increased probability of finding a job (30.1%) and employed respondents expecting a slight decrease in job loss (8.2%).

Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.7% over the next 12 months, slightly higher than December. Expectations for mortgage interest rates remained at 4.7%. Lower-income households anticipate higher mortgage rates (5.4%) than higher-income households (4.2%). The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions increased, and the share of recent credit applicants declined to 14.8% from 15.7%.

The ECB will release the February survey results on 27 March 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.