ECB consumer expectations survey results – July 2026

The European Central Bank has published the results of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for July 2026. Key findings include a slight decrease in median perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months, from 3.6% in June to 3.5% in July.

Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased to 2.9% from 3.0%, and expectations for inflation three years ahead decreased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Expectations for inflation five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.4%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations remained higher than pre-Middle East conflict levels.

Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months decreased to 1.0% from 1.1%. Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months was steady at 5.1%, while expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months remained at 3.6%. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months improved slightly to -1.2% from -1.4%, with the expected unemployment rate unchanged at 11.2%.

Lower-income households expect higher unemployment (13.5%) and mortgage rates (5.7%) than higher-income households (9.4% unemployment, 4.4% mortgage rates). Expectations for home price growth remained at 3.4%, with higher expectations in lower-income quintiles (4.0%) compared to higher-income quintiles (3.1%). Expectations for mortgage interest rates declined to 4.9% from 5.0%.

Access to credit reports a net tightening over the past 12 months, with 14.3% of consumers applying for credit in the past three months, up from 13.4% in April. Expectations for tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months declined.

The ECB will release the full CES results for August on September 18, 2026. For media inquiries, contact William Lelieveldt at +49 170 2279090.