ECB consumer expectations survey results – June 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) has published the June 2026 results of its Consumer Expectations Survey. Key findings include a significant decrease in median perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months, from 4.0% in May to 3.6% in June, and a decrease in expectations for inflation over the next 12 months, from 3.5% to 3.0%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead slightly declined to 2.8%, while expectations five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.4%.

Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months decreased but remained higher than pre-Middle East war levels. Lower-income respondents reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations, while younger respondents (aged 18-34) reported lower perceptions and expectations than older groups.

Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1%, from 1.0%. Perceived nominal spending growth over the past year decreased to 5.1%, from 5.4%, and expected spending growth over the next year decreased to 3.6%. Lower-income households expect slightly higher spending growth than higher-income households.

Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months improved to -1.4%, from -1.7%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months decreased slightly to 11.2%, with lower-income households expecting a higher rate (13.8%) than higher-income households (9.7%). The outlook suggests a broadly stable labor market.

Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, slightly down from 3.6%. Expectations for mortgage interest rates increased to 5.0%, from 4.9%. Lower-income households expect higher mortgage rates (5.8%) than higher-income households (4.4%). The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions declined in June.

Microdata details are available on the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey webpage. The next survey results will be released on 21 August 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.