The European Central Bank (ECB) published the results of its consumer expectations survey for May 2026. Key findings include:
- Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months remained at 4.0%. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased to 3.5%, from 4.0% in April.
- Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively.
- Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months decreased but remained higher than pre-Middle East conflict levels.
- Lower-income respondents reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations; younger respondents (18-34) reported lower perceptions and expectations than older groups.
Regarding income and consumption:
- Nominal income growth expectations for the next 12 months increased to 1.0%, from 0.8% in April.
- Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months increased slightly to 5.4%, from 5.3%.
- Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months decreased to 3.8%, from 4.3%, with lower-income quintiles expecting slightly higher growth.
On economic growth and the labour market:
- Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months improved to -1.7%, from -2.2% in April.
- Expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased marginally to 11.3%, from 11.2%.
- Lower-income households expect higher unemployment (13.7%) than higher-income households (9.5%).
Housing and credit access expectations:
- Home price expectations decreased slightly to 3.6% over the next 12 months.
- Home price expectations in the lowest income quintile remain higher at 4.1% compared to 3.4% in the highest quintile.
- Mortgage interest rate expectations remained unchanged at 4.9%.
- The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions increased to the highest since February 2024, while expectations for future credit tightening decreased.
The next release of the survey results is scheduled for 24 July 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
