The European Central Bank (ECB) has published the September 2026 results of its Consumer Expectations Survey. Compared to August 2026:
- Median perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months increased slightly to 3.6%, and expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1%. Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5% respectively.
- Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1%, with higher expectations in the bottom income quintile (1.5%) compared to the top quintile (1.2%).
- Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months increased to 5.3%, and expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months rose to 3.7%.
- Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased to -1.5%, while expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3%. Households in the bottom income quintile expect a higher unemployment rate (13.6%) than those in the top quintile (9.7%).
- Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4%. Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, with households in the top income quintile expecting lower rates (4.4%) than those in the bottom quintile (5.7%).
- The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions increased both for the past 12 months and expectations for the next 12 months.
The detailed microdata are available on the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey web page. The next survey results will be released on 27 November 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
