ECB releases outlook for euro area economy and energy prices as of June 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) has released its outlook for the euro area economy as of June 2026. The projections include energy commodity prices, inflation rates, and macroeconomic indicators, based on market expectations and data up to 21 May 2026.

The outlook covers oil, gas, electricity prices, and the Synthetic Energy Commodity Price Index (SECPI). It also includes baseline assumptions for interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation components for 2025 to 2028.

Key macroeconomic projections indicate moderate growth, with real GDP growth expected to be 0.8% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027, and 1.6% in 2028. Inflation (HICP) is forecasted at 3.0% in 2026, decreasing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Unemployment rate is projected to remain around 6.3% in 2026.

The report also presents energy price scenarios, inflation expectations, and financial conditions, including interest rates and credit flows, based on market data and futures curves as of June 15, 2026.

Further details and projections are available in the ECB’s official publication at ECB June 2026 projections report.