ECB outlook for euro area economy and energy prices as of September 2026

The European Central Bank published its economic outlook for the euro area as of September 2026. The report includes developments in energy commodity prices, with projections based on futures markets up to September 2026, and scenarios for energy prices through 2028.

Energy commodity prices, including oil and gas, are modeled using a synthetic energy commodity price index (SECPI). The projections incorporate futures market data and are presented under baseline and various scenarios, including milder and adverse conditions.

The outlook discusses inflation trends, with specific focus on HICP inflation excluding energy and food, and components such as energy inflation and food prices. Short-term inflation drivers and expectations are analyzed, with projections extending to 2028.

Economic growth in the euro area is forecasted with details on quarterly changes in real GDP, private and government consumption, investment, and trade volumes. The report also covers labour market developments, including employment growth, unemployment rate projections, and the role of wealth in consumption growth.

Fiscal policy stance, government consumption, public investment, and government deficits are examined, alongside financial conditions, including bank funding costs, lending rates, and interest rate expectations. The impact of monetary policy adjustments on the economy is also assessed.

Further, the document presents analysis on trade in AI-related goods, import and export volumes, and price pressures from AI goods, as well as inflation expectations from surveys and market-based measures. The overall assessment provides a comprehensive view of the euro area’s economic and financial outlook as of September 2026.