ECB publishes economic outlook and scenarios for the euro area

The European Central Bank (ECB) has published its comprehensive economic outlook for the euro area as of July 2026. The report includes projections for energy commodity prices, exchange rates, global trade, and inflation developments.

Key highlights include updated scenarios for oil, gas, and synthetic energy prices, as well as exchange rate forecasts for USD/EUR and the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). The outlook also covers global GDP growth, trade volumes excluding the euro area, and sectoral supply chain indicators.

The report provides detailed projections for inflation components such as energy, food, and services, along with underlying inflation measures and inflation expectations. It also discusses fiscal policies, monetary conditions, and financial market developments influencing the euro area’s economic trajectory.

Additional analyses include labor market developments, productivity growth, credit conditions, and the role of AI-related goods in trade. The ECB’s projections are based on data up to July 23, 2026, and incorporate various scenarios for energy prices and global economic risks.

The full document is available at ECB official publication.