ECB publishes June 2026 economic outlook and monetary policy projections

The European Central Bank (ECB) published its economic outlook and monetary policy projections for June 2026. The report includes forecasts for energy commodity prices, inflation, GDP growth, and labour market developments in the euro area.

Projections incorporate spot prices and futures data as of 21 May 2026, with scenarios based on percentiles as of 21 May 2026 and latest futures curves as of 19 June 2026.

The outlook covers energy prices such as oil, gas, and the Synthetic Energy Commodity Price Index (SECPI), with projections extending through 2028 under different scenarios: baseline, adverse, and severe.

Economic forecasts include real GDP growth, inflation measures (HICP and core inflation), and labour market indicators like unemployment expectations and employment growth. The report also discusses potential impacts of Middle East conflict scenarios on energy prices and inflation, assuming no policy changes.

Revisions to previous projections are detailed, with specific focus on inflation components, energy prices, and GDP growth. The full report is available at the ECB’s official website.