ECB survey shows revised inflation expectations and lowered GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027

The European Central Bank (ECB) has published the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2026.

Expectations for headline inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), were revised upwards for 2026 and 2027, at 2.7% and 2.1% respectively, and remained at 2.0% for 2028. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 were higher than in the previous survey, while expectations for 2028 remained unchanged. For core HICP inflation, excluding energy and food, forecasts were 2.2% for 2026 and 2027, and 2.1% for 2028, also revised upwards in the near term. Expectations for 2030 remained at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation.

Real GDP growth expectations were revised down to 1.0% for 2026, 1.3% for 2027, and 1.3% for 2028, mainly due to the anticipated negative impact of higher energy prices related to the Middle East conflict. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 were lowered by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, while expectations for 2028 were unchanged. Longer-term GDP growth expectations remained at 1.3%.

Unemployment rate expectations were unchanged, with forecasts of 6.3% for 2026, 6.2% for 2027, 6.1% for 2028, and the longer-term outlook for 2030.