ECB survey shows stable inflation expectations and revised growth forecasts for 2026-2028

The European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2026 reports that headline inflation expectations remain broadly unchanged, with expectations for 2026 at 2.7%, for 2027 at 2.2%, and for 2028 at 2.0%. Expectations for inflation excluding food and energy (HICPX) increased slightly for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%, aligning with recent data and closer to June 2026 Eurosystem projections.

Inflation expectations for 2027 and 2028 remained unchanged, with longer-term expectations for 2031 at 2.0%. The survey indicates limited expected indirect effects from the Middle East conflict, mainly concentrated in 2026, with risks tilted slightly to the upside for inflation in 2026.

Real GDP growth expectations were revised down to 0.6% for 2026 (a decrease of 0.4 percentage points), 1.2% for 2027 (down 0.1 percentage points), and 1.3% for 2028 (unchanged). Longer-term growth expectations for 2031 were revised down to 1.2% from previous estimates.

Unemployment rate expectations increased slightly, with forecasts of 6.3% for 2026 and 2027, declining to 6.2% in 2028 and 6.1% in the longer term.