ECB survey shows stable inflation and growth expectations for 2026

The European Central Bank has published the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters for the first quarter of 2026.

Headline and core HICP inflation expectations remain unchanged across all horizons. Respondents expect headline inflation of 1.8% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 are unchanged from the previous survey, while expectations for 2028 were not previously reported. Core HICP inflation expectations are steady at 2.0% across all horizons, including the long-term (2030).

Real GDP growth expectations are unchanged overall, with a slight upward revision for 2026 to 1.2%, compared to 1.1% in the previous survey. Expectations for 2027 remain at 1.4%, and for 2028 at 1.3%. Longer-term GDP growth expectations are steady at 1.3%.

Unemployment rate expectations are unchanged for 2026 (6.3%) and 2027 (6.2%), but revised slightly downward for 2028 and the long-term (2030) to 6.1%.

These expectations reflect the ECB’s assessment of economic conditions and are based on data available at the time of the survey.