ECB wage tracker suggests easing of negotiated wage pressures in 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with wage agreements signed up to the end of February 2026. The forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at the end of December 2026.

Available data indicates that negotiated wage growth will stabilize at around 2.6% by the end of 2026. The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments shows 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.

The ECB wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, estimates smoothed wage growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, based on coverage of 50.7% and 39.7% of employees respectively. Coverage declines over time as new agreements are signed in 2026.

Compared to February 2026 data, the smoothed wage tracker has been revised downward by 0.1 percentage points for 2026. The unsmoothed indicator also shows a decrease of 0.1 percentage points for 2026, indicating a moderation in negotiated wage growth.

The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited for analyzing monthly or quarterly wage dynamics, while the unsmoothed version reflects annual trends. For 2026, the quarterly projections are 1.9%, 2.1%, 2.5%, and 2.6%, respectively, with increases mainly due to statistical effects rather than new wage pressures.

The unsmoothed wage tracker indicates a more stable outlook, averaging around 2.9% in the first quarter and 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026. Coverage of employees decreases throughout the year, from 44.1% in Q1 to 36.3% in Q4.

The forward-looking horizon remains until December 2026, with plans to extend to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 release as new agreements are signed and coverage expands.

It is important to note that the ECB wage tracker is subject to revision and should not be considered a forecast. It only reflects available data on active collective bargaining agreements and does not account for other factors affecting labor costs, such as employment composition, bonuses, or hours worked. For a comprehensive view, refer to the March 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which estimate a 3.4% yearly growth in compensation per employee in 2026.

The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for nine participating euro area countries on its Data Portal. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.