ECB wage tracker indicates lower wage growth and normalization in 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with collective bargaining agreements signed up to the end of November 2025. The forward-looking horizon has been extended to the end of December 2026.

The data indicates a slowdown in negotiated wage growth, consistent with the ECB’s October 2025 Governing Council assessment. The wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments projects growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, based on coverage of 49.5% and 28.8% of employees, respectively.

Unsmoothed wage growth projections are 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. Excluding one-off payments, negotiated wage growth is expected to ease from 3.9% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. The quarterly projections for 2026 show an increasing trend from 2.0% in Q1 to 2.7% in Q4, reflecting the dissipation of large one-off payments made in 2024.

Coverage of employees in 2026 varies quarterly, from 36.9% in Q1 to 23.4% in Q4. The data also indicates less dispersion in wage pressures across euro area countries in 2026, with more stable and less volatile wage growth outlooks.

The ECB emphasizes that the wage tracker may be revised and that the forward-looking data should not be interpreted as a forecast. For comprehensive wage development analysis, refer to the December 2025 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, which estimate a 4.0% growth in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026 for euro area compensation per employee.

The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators covering nine euro area countries on its Data Portal. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.