ECB wage tracker indicates stable negotiated wage pressures in 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with agreements signed up to the end of May 2026. The forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at the end of December 2026.

The tracker indicates stable negotiated wage growth of approximately 2.6% in 2026, with no revisions compared to the May 2026 data release. The headline wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments, shows an increase from 1.8% in Q1 to 2.6% in Q3 and Q4.

The tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates a wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026, reflecting more stable yearly dynamics. The tracker excluding one-off payments suggests a moderation from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026.

Coverage of employees is projected to decline from 46.4% in Q1 to 40.4% in Q4 of 2026, as new agreements are signed and coverage expands beyond 2026. The overall outlook remains unchanged, with the horizon extended to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 release.

The ECB emphasizes that the wage tracker is subject to revision and should not be viewed as a forecast. It captures current information from active collective bargaining agreements. For a comprehensive view, refer to the June 2026 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, which estimate a 3.2% growth rate in compensation per employee for 2026.

The ECB publishes four indicators on its Data Portal, covering negotiated wages, structural increases, and employee coverage across nine euro area countries.

For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.