ECB wage tracker indicates stable negotiated wage pressures in 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with wage agreements signed up to mid-April 2026. The forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at the end of December 2026.

The tracker indicates broadly stable negotiated wage growth of around 2.6% by the end of 2026. The wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments shows 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. The smoothed version indicates 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, based on coverage of 51.3% and 41.9% of employees, respectively.

Compared to the March 2026 data, the smoothed tracker for 2026 remains unrevised. The tracker excluding one-off payments suggests a decrease from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. The headline ECB wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments over time, projects an increase from 1.8% in Q1 to 2.6% in Q4 of 2026, reflecting the dissipation of large one-off payments made in 2024.

The unsmoothed tracker indicates a stable outlook for negotiated wages, averaging around 2.9% in Q1 and 2.5% in Q4 of 2026. Employee coverage for 2026 is estimated at 45.6% in Q1, decreasing to 38.8% in Q4. The data for Austria now start from January 2013, and the forward horizon will extend to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 release.

The ECB emphasizes that the wage tracker data may be revised and should not be interpreted as forecasts. Deviations from actual wage growth are possible over time. For a comprehensive assessment, refer to the March 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which estimate a 3.4% yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area.

The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for nine participating euro area countries on its Data Portal. These include the headline tracker, the tracker excluding one-off payments, the tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments, and the share of employees covered, which indicates the representativeness of the data.

For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.