ECB wage tracker indicates stable negotiated wage pressures in Q1 2027

The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which monitors active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage pressures with smoothed one-off payments of 2.3% in 2026 (covering 44.3% of employees) and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 (covering 28.4%).

The forward-looking horizon has been extended to March 2027 and will be further extended to the second quarter of 2027 in the September 2026 data release as new agreements are signed and coverage increases.

Compared to the June 2026 data, the wage pressures for 2026 remain broadly unchanged, with no material impact from new agreements.

The ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments better captures quarterly or monthly wage dynamics, while the unsmoothed version reflects yearly trends. Both indicate stable negotiated wage growth of approximately 2.6% to 2.7% in 2026 and early 2027.

In 2026, the headline ECB wage tracker averages 1.8% in Q1, 2.1% in Q2, and 2.6% in Q3 and Q4, reflecting the fading effect of large one-off payments made in 2024. The overall 2026 average is 2.6%, with a stable 2.7% in Q1 2027.

Coverage of employees decreases from 47.0% in Q1 2026 to 28.4% in Q1 2027. The ECB emphasizes that the wage tracker is subject to revision and should not be interpreted as a forecast. For a comprehensive view, refer to the June 2026 Eurosystem macroeconomic projections indicating a 3.2% growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area.

The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for nine euro area countries on its Data Portal, including different measures of negotiated wage growth and coverage percentages.

For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.