ECB wage tracker suggests wage normalization in 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker has been updated with wage agreements signed up to mid-January 2026. The forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at the end of December 2026, but will be extended to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 release.

The tracker indicates that negotiated wage growth will level off below 3% by the end of 2026. The headline ECB wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments, shows growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. The unsmoothed indicator reports 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. Excluding one-off payments, negotiated wage growth is projected to decrease from 3.9% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026.

In 2026, the wage tracker shows growth of 2.1% in the first half and 2.7% in the second half, reflecting the dissipation of large one-off payments made in 2024. The data suggests less variation in wage pressures across euro area countries and a more stable outlook for negotiated wages in 2026, with coverage of employees at 37.1% in the first half and 29.2% in the second half.

The ECB emphasizes that the wage tracker is subject to revisions and should not be interpreted as a forecast. It captures current available data from active collective bargaining agreements. For comprehensive wage development insights, refer to the December 2025 Eurosystem projections, which estimate a 4.0% growth in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.

The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators covering nine euro area countries on its Data Portal. For further details, see the official ECB press release.