Interview with ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos on geopolitical risks, monetary policy, and digital euro

Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, was interviewed by Andrés Stumpf on 27 May 2026. He reflected on his eight years in office, highlighting the increased prominence of geopolitical risks in economic policy decisions, including the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and global inflation shocks.

He emphasized Spain’s importance on the ECB’s Executive Board, noting its economic reforms and growth potential, and expressed confidence in Spain regaining a seat in the coming quarters. De Guindos also discussed his upcoming academic role at Comillas University and IESE Business School, dismissing recent political speculation about returning to politics.

Regarding monetary policy, he indicated that the ECB’s decisions depend on data, and there is no fixed approach to rate hikes in June. He contrasted current conditions with past crises, noting that today’s supply shocks differ from previous expansionary periods, and advised his successor, Boris, to be prepared for future challenges.

He commented on Spain’s economic outlook, acknowledging structural advantages but also concerns about productivity, wages, and fiscal pressures. De Guindos addressed banking sector regulation, advocating for simplification without reducing capital requirements, and emphasized the importance of banking consolidation driven by banks themselves, not government intervention.

On the topic of mergers, he clarified that the ECB assesses solvency but does not influence specific transactions, citing the BBVA-Banco Sabadell case as a private matter. He also discussed the potential sale of the government’s stake in CaixaBank, viewing divestments as appropriate.

De Guindos identified geopolitical risks, high market valuations, limited fiscal space, and private credit concerns as main threats. He highlighted the ECB’s work on cybersecurity related to artificial intelligence, warning of vulnerabilities from frontier AI models.

Regarding the digital euro, he explained its purpose as a means of cross-euro area payments, enhancing autonomy and economic governance, dismissing conspiracy theories about surveillance. He emphasized that the digital euro aims to be a free, efficient payment method supporting consumers and merchants.