Survey shows tightening lending conditions for euro area firms in late 2025

The European Central Bank’s Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) for the fourth quarter of 2025 reports a net increase in bank loan interest rates (net 12%) and other financing costs (net 28%).

Firms also reported a modest rise in financing needs (net 3%) and a small perceived decline in availability (net -2%), increasing the financing gap to net 3%. Expectations for external financing availability remain broadly unchanged over the next three months.

Economic outlook continues to constrain financing availability (net 20%), while banks’ willingness to lend has slightly improved (net 4%). Firms experienced increased turnover (net 7%) and a slight decline in profit levels (net 10%). Investment activity remained stable, with 6% of firms reporting increased investments.

Firms expect selling prices to rise by 2.9% and wages by 3.1% over the next 12 months. Non-labour input costs are expected to increase by 3.6%. Inflation expectations remain broadly unchanged, with median forecasts of 2.6% for one year ahead and 3.0% for three and five years ahead. Most firms (56%) see upside risks to the five-year inflation outlook.

Regarding artificial intelligence, 27% of firms do not use AI, 33% use it very infrequently, 31% moderately, and 7% significantly. SMEs are less likely to use AI compared to large firms, but significant use is similar across firm sizes.

The survey was conducted between 19 November and 15 December 2025, covering 5,067 firms in the euro area, primarily small and medium-sized enterprises. The full report and detailed data are available on the ECB website and Data Portal.

For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.